{
  "record_type": "room_virtual_push",
  "push": "VP4",
  "topic": "e8-robustness",
  "date": "2026-10-03",
  "label": "SIMULATED",
  "question": "Is the E8 INDETERMINATE verdict robust, or an artifact of the assumed input ranges?",
  "judged_by": [
    {
      "file": "next-stage/build/e8-cost-case/well_cost_case.py",
      "sha256": "d550c2435cdf340e51c85db84e0c6bb632fb0eae0ec616bd00b7e9b7cc186781"
    },
    {
      "file": "next-stage/build/e8-cost-case/INPUTS.md",
      "sha256": "033f9d7c750f5ec576a718de2b314eb3ac0c15b1283dc6bd1696c68d60111b3b"
    }
  ],
  "seed": 20261002,
  "assumptions": [
    "wider variant widens every declared range by \u00b125% of its span (assumption-class perturbation, labels and sources carried over unchanged)",
    "leave-one-anchor-out replaces one measured/ceiling anchor with an assumed band of its own surrounding evidence; the engine's labels/sources are replaced with the variant note",
    "2000 draws per variant, engine seed 20261002 \u2014 deterministic (W2)"
  ],
  "limits": [
    "Every variant is still desk arithmetic over assumption ranges on a 6,000 m S2 spec well that nobody has drilled; zero measured duty hours (S6).",
    "STABLE would name a limiter under declared ranges only \u2014 not a cost promise; the RFQ (HUMAN-QUEUE item 9) is the measurement that moves these numbers."
  ],
  "house_rules": [
    "pump/treatment electricity stays separate from recovered output",
    "redistributed flow is never counted as new heat",
    "box fractions are never probabilities (CLAIM-TRACE S1)",
    "analysis alone is not qualification \u2014 zero measured duty hours (IEEE Std 323)"
  ],
  "stability_threshold": 0.9,
  "variants": [
    {
      "id": "V4-0",
      "variant": "desk baseline (engine defaults, engine seed 20261002)",
      "verdict": "INDETERMINATE",
      "top_term": null,
      "top_share": 0.649,
      "ranking": [
        "losses",
        "trips",
        "cuttings",
        "energy",
        "steering"
      ],
      "process_top_shares": {
        "steering": 0.0,
        "cuttings": 0.019,
        "losses": 0.649,
        "trips": 0.3315,
        "energy": 0.0005
      },
      "contracts": {
        "W1-declared-inputs": "ok",
        "W2-deterministic": "ok",
        "W3-e8f1-stability": "ok",
        "W4-indeterminate": "ok",
        "W5-no-invented-maturity": "ok"
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "V4-1",
      "variant": "all declared ranges widened \u00b125% of span",
      "verdict": "INDETERMINATE",
      "top_term": null,
      "top_share": 0.532,
      "ranking": [
        "losses",
        "trips",
        "cuttings",
        "energy",
        "steering"
      ],
      "process_top_shares": {
        "steering": 0.0025,
        "cuttings": 0.0855,
        "losses": 0.532,
        "trips": 0.361,
        "energy": 0.019
      },
      "contracts": {
        "W1-declared-inputs": "ok",
        "W2-deterministic": "ok",
        "W3-e8f1-stability": "ok",
        "W4-indeterminate": "ok",
        "W5-no-invented-maturity": "ok"
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "V4-2",
      "variant": "weight perturbation 0.20 -> 0.35",
      "verdict": "INDETERMINATE",
      "top_term": null,
      "top_share": 0.631,
      "ranking": [
        "losses",
        "trips",
        "cuttings",
        "energy",
        "steering"
      ],
      "process_top_shares": {
        "steering": 0.0005,
        "cuttings": 0.034,
        "losses": 0.631,
        "trips": 0.331,
        "energy": 0.0035
      },
      "contracts": {
        "W1-declared-inputs": "ok",
        "W2-deterministic": "ok",
        "W3-e8f1-stability": "ok",
        "W4-indeterminate": "ok",
        "W5-no-invented-maturity": "ok"
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "V4-3",
      "variant": "leave bit_on_bottom anchor out (W1B-031 ~50%)",
      "verdict": "INDETERMINATE",
      "top_term": null,
      "top_share": 0.6175,
      "ranking": [
        "losses",
        "trips",
        "cuttings",
        "energy",
        "steering"
      ],
      "process_top_shares": {
        "steering": 0.0005,
        "cuttings": 0.0395,
        "losses": 0.6175,
        "trips": 0.342,
        "energy": 0.0005
      },
      "contracts": {
        "W1-declared-inputs": "ok",
        "W2-deterministic": "ok",
        "W3-e8f1-stability": "ok",
        "W4-indeterminate": "ok",
        "W5-no-invented-maturity": "ok"
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "V4-4",
      "variant": "leave loss_event_hours anchor out (W1B-024 197 h)",
      "verdict": "INDETERMINATE",
      "top_term": null,
      "top_share": 0.665,
      "ranking": [
        "trips",
        "losses",
        "cuttings",
        "energy",
        "steering"
      ],
      "process_top_shares": {
        "steering": 0.005,
        "cuttings": 0.081,
        "losses": 0.2385,
        "trips": 0.665,
        "energy": 0.0105
      },
      "contracts": {
        "W1-declared-inputs": "ok",
        "W2-deterministic": "ok",
        "W3-e8f1-stability": "ok",
        "W4-indeterminate": "ok",
        "W5-no-invented-maturity": "ok"
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "V4-5",
      "variant": "leave fishing-fraction ceiling out (W1B-031 20%)",
      "verdict": "INDETERMINATE",
      "top_term": null,
      "top_share": 0.524,
      "ranking": [
        "trips",
        "losses",
        "cuttings",
        "energy",
        "steering"
      ],
      "process_top_shares": {
        "steering": 0.0,
        "cuttings": 0.0135,
        "losses": 0.4625,
        "trips": 0.524,
        "energy": 0.0
      },
      "contracts": {
        "W1-declared-inputs": "ok",
        "W2-deterministic": "ok",
        "W3-e8f1-stability": "ok",
        "W4-indeterminate": "ok",
        "W5-no-invented-maturity": "ok"
      }
    }
  ],
  "reading": "INDETERMINATE is robust across the declared variants: no variant names a stable top limiter at the 0.90 threshold \u2014 the case cannot name a lever, and we stop claiming one (E8-F1)",
  "contracts_judged": [
    "W1-declared-inputs",
    "W2-deterministic",
    "W3-e8f1-stability",
    "W4-indeterminate",
    "W5-no-invented-maturity"
  ]
}